Kalshi vs Polymarket: Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.2% in August
Last observed 2026-09-04 12:28 UTC. Prices and fees change constantly; the rules comparison is the durable part.
SETTLEMENT_GUARANTEE_UNKNOWN— the venue does not publish enough settlement policy to prove what happens in every branch (missing data, cancellation, revision)
| Venue | Contract | Taker fee at last observed price |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.2% in August? kalshi:KXU3-26AUG-T4.2 | 2.0¢ per contract |
| Polymarket US | Above 4.2% polymarket_us:urc-usunemp-sa-august-2026-09-04-gt4pt2pct | 1.1¢ per share |
Capital lock-up: about 91.1 days until the later of the two contracts settles.
Kalshi fine-print grade: F (35/100)
−20 FAMILY_POLICY_INCOMPLETE: the rules omit terms this contract family requires — the measurement basis, the revision rule, or the missing-release branch its peers publish
−20 MISSING_CANCELLATION_POLICY: the rules never say what happens to open positions if the event is canceled, voided, or never takes place
−15 MISSING_REVISION_POLICY: the rules never say whether a later revision of the underlying number changes the outcome
−10 MISSING_NEGATIVE_BRANCH: the rules say what settles the contract Yes but never state what settles it No
Polymarket fine-print grade: C (60/100)
−20 FAMILY_POLICY_INCOMPLETE: the rules omit terms this contract family requires — the measurement basis, the revision rule, or the missing-release branch its peers publish
−20 MISSING_CANCELLATION_POLICY: the rules never say what happens to open positions if the event is canceled, voided, or never takes place
What Kalshi publishes
If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 4.2% in August 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
What Polymarket publishes
This market will settle to Yes if the U.S. seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) in the Employment Situation Report for August 2026 is above 4.2%. Outcome sourced from BLS. Settlement is based on the Employment Situation Report release published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), currently scheduled for release on September 4, 2026. Any subsequent revisions to this figure will not be considered for settlement purposes. If no qualifying U.S. seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) figure for the specified month is released within three months of the Employment Situation Report scheduled release date, this market will resolve based on data from the most recent previous month with available data.
Fees use each venue's published taker formula at the last observed price — see the fee calculator for any price.