Kalshi vs Polymarket: ISM Manufacturing PMI in Sep 2026
Last observed 2026-09-04 20:08 UTC. Prices and fees change constantly; the rules comparison is the durable part.
SETTLEMENT_POLICY_MISMATCH— both venues publish settlement policy, but the published texts divergeSETTLEMENT_GUARANTEE_UNKNOWN— the venue does not publish enough settlement policy to prove what happens in every branch (missing data, cancellation, revision)
The Polymarket leg here is the global venue, which US accounts cannot trade; it is shown for the rules comparison only.
| Venue | Contract | Taker fee at last observed price |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | ISM Manufacturing PMI in Sep 2026? kalshi:KXISMPMI-26SEP-58 | 1.0¢ per contract |
| Polymarket (global — not available to US accounts) | Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be at least 58.0 in September? polymarket_global:4082397 | 0.1¢ per share |
Capital lock-up: about 56.7 days until the later of the two contracts settles.
Kalshi fine-print grade: D (45/100)
−20 FAMILY_POLICY_INCOMPLETE: the rules omit terms this contract family requires — the measurement basis, the revision rule, or the missing-release branch its peers publish
−20 MISSING_CANCELLATION_POLICY: the rules never say what happens to open positions if the event is canceled, voided, or never takes place
−15 MISSING_REVISION_POLICY: the rules never say whether a later revision of the underlying number changes the outcome
What Kalshi publishes
If the headline PMI value in the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business for Sep 2026, as published by ISM (one decimal place), is at least 58, then the market resolves to Yes.
Fees use each venue's published taker formula at the last observed price — see the fee calculator for any price.