Kalshi vs Polymarket: Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting
Last observed 2026-09-04 20:08 UTC. Prices and fees change constantly; the rules comparison is the durable part.
Not verified as the same bet. The venues' published terms differ in ways that could settle differently:
SETTLEMENT_POLICY_MISMATCH— both venues publish settlement policy, but the published texts diverge
The Polymarket leg here is the global venue, which US accounts cannot trade; it is shown for the rules comparison only.
| Venue | Contract | Taker fee at last observed price |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting? kalshi:KXFEDDECISION-26OCT-C25 | 1.0¢ per contract |
| Polymarket (global — not available to US accounts) | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? polymarket_global:2589811 | 0.2¢ per share |
Capital lock-up: about 144.9 days until the later of the two contracts settles.
Kalshi fine-print grade: B (85/100)
−15 MISSING_REVISION_POLICY: the rules never say whether a later revision of the underlying number changes the outcome
What Kalshi publishes
If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of 25bps on October 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for "Fed maintains rate" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.
What Polymarket publishes
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no sta
Fees use each venue's published taker formula at the last observed price — see the fee calculator for any price.