Kalshi vs Polymarket: Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their September 2026 meeting

Last observed 2026-09-04 20:08 UTC. Prices and fees change constantly; the rules comparison is the durable part.

• SETTLEMENT_POLICY_MISMATCH — both venues publish settlement policy, but the published texts diverge
• SETTLEMENT_GUARANTEE_UNKNOWN — the venue does not publish enough settlement policy to prove what happens in every branch (missing data, cancellation, revision)

Capital lock-up: about 102.9 days until the later of the two contracts settles.

Kalshi fine-print grade: B (85/100)
−15 MISSING_REVISION_POLICY: the rules never say whether a later revision of the underlying number changes the outcome

Polymarket fine-print grade: D (45/100)
−20 FAMILY_POLICY_INCOMPLETE: the rules omit terms this contract family requires — the measurement basis, the revision rule, or the missing-release branch its peers publish
−20 MISSING_CANCELLATION_POLICY: the rules never say what happens to open positions if the event is canceled, voided, or never takes place
−15 MISSING_REVISION_POLICY: the rules never say whether a later revision of the underlying number changes the outcome

What Kalshi publishes

If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 0bps on September 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for "Fed maintains rate" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.

What Polymarket publishes

This market will settle to Yes if the Federal Reserve does not change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate at the September 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for September 15-16. Outcome sourced from the Federal Reserve. If the change in the specified rate does not precisely match the displayed options, changes smaller than the smallest option of the same direction (increase/decrease) will be rounded to that smallest option, and changes greater than the smallest option of the same direction will be rounded to the nearest displayed option, with values exactly halfway between options being rounded away from zero.

Fees use each venue's published taker formula at the last observed price — see the fee calculator for any price.